The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is an international meteorological organization. A recent report has stated that the climatic factor ‘El Niño’, which started in 2023 and increased the global temperature dangerously, has almost ended and the planet is currently passing through a neutral phase.
According to the same report, from July to September, there is a 60 percent chance that the climate factor ‘La Nina’, which is part of El Nino, will start.
It should be noted that these climatic factors, including climate change, greatly affect the monsoon rains, and their effects also affect Pakistan.
Experts say that the sea level in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean will be colder than normal due to La Nina, which increases the global temperature, causing tropical cyclones and more than normal rains around the world. It is possible.
In a report on the end of El Niño and the onset of La Niña, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Deputy Secretary-General Co Barrett said, “Every month since the onset of El Niño in June 2023, a new temperature record has been reached. is broken and 2023 has become the hottest year on record. The end of El Niño does not necessarily mean that long-term climate change will make any difference, as the planet will continue to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, while the coming months will be unusually warm. But sea surface temperatures can cause significant changes on Earth.”
Finally, what are these climatic factors El Nino and La Nina? Dr. Ghulam Rasool, a meteorologist, former director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department and Pakistan’s permanent representative to the World Meteorological Organization, says, “El Niño (Southern Oscillation or El Niño) is a meteorological phenomenon of the Southern Oscillation that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. , which has a profound effect on the weather around the world. It consists of three phases, including El Niño, La Nina, and the neutral phase.”
Explaining this further, he says that the surface waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean along Chile, Ecuador, and Peru naturally become warmer than average, so this phase is called El Niño. This meteorological phenomenon usually occurs between every two to seven years.
According to Dr. Ghulam Rasool, “Due to the warming of the Pacific Ocean due to El Nino, the fish go below the sea level, so the fishermen of the countries of this region would have to face economic loss. Water levels in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler on average during La Nina than during El Niño.”
To the question of why warmer or cooler than average water levels in the eastern equatorial Pacific affect global climate? Dr. Ghulam Rasool said, “Westerly wave is a system of winds over the planet, which moves from west to east. When these winds pass over the Pacific Ocean and the sea surface temperature is below or above normal, it also affects this wind system. When this stream of winds moves from this region carrying heat or cold to the entire planet, its effects are seen all over the world. Due to these climatic phenomena, when the wind system brings warmer or colder winds than usual to the whole world, there are more rains than usual and there is drought in some places.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, during La Niña, precipitation decreases along the west coast of South America, which can lead to drought, while rainfall and flooding events increase in Australia and Indonesia, and in North America. During Niña, winters become more severe and rainfall decreases in the southern parts of North America.
On the other hand, during El Nino, rainfall increases along the South American west coast, which can lead to flooding. Droughts and fires increase in Australia and Indonesia. Winters are mild in North America and precipitation increases in the southern parts of North America. In addition, the threat of hurricanes increases in Atlanta, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
As far as the effects of these climatic factors on Pakistan are concerned, Dr. Ghulam Rasool says, “During La Nina, monsoon rains in Pakistan are more than normal, winter rains are reduced and snowfall is delayed.” It happens.”
He says, “The severe floods in Pakistan in 2022 were under the influence of La Nina. This was a new record in the history of meteorology as La Niña usually lasts for one year, but the La Niña that started in 2020 lasted for three years until 2022, causing disasters around the world. Severe floods in Pakistan while Europe is suffering from severe heat wave. Due to its effect, floods, heat wave and famine were seen in some parts of the world.
Dr. Ghulam Rasool said, “The 2022 Monsoon in Pakistan due to Lanaina has brought heavy rainfall to areas that normally do not receive monsoon rains.”
According to him, “Kashmir, known as the gateway to monsoon in Pakistan, recorded less than normal rainfall due to La Nina.”
Discussing the impact of El Niño on Pakistan, Dr. Ghulam Rasool further said, “The severe effects of El Niño in Pakistan were seen in 1997 and 1998 when severe drought was observed in Pakistan. Due to El Nino, Pakistan experienced continuous severe drought from 1998 to 2002. A large part of Balochistan was affected due to this drought. In many regions of Balochistan, plantations were destroyed and animals died on a large scale. Similarly, crops and gardens were severely damaged in Sindh, South Punjab and southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Dr. Ghulam Rasool says, “Monsoon rains were very less than normal in those years, but due to El Niño, where the whole of Pakistan was suffering from severe drought, on July 21, 2001, Islamabad and Rawalpindi received 620 mm in 10 hours. Rain was recorded and severe flooding was witnessed in the twin cities.”
He further said, “Due to El Nino, there may be a severe drought and sometimes floods.” El Nino is ending this year and soon La Nina will start, which will be at its peak in winter next year in Pakistan, which is likely to have less rainfall.”
When Dr. Ghulam Rasool was asked, how much of a role can environmental change play in these climatic factors becoming severe and occurring quickly? So he said, “Until now, scientists have not been able to find out why these phenomena occur in the Pacific Ocean, so it is not possible to find out that climate change has any effect on their intense and early onset.” Yes or no.
On the other hand, Sardar Sarfaraz Ahmed, chief meteorologist of the Department of Meteorology, says that due to El Nino and La Nina, the weather in Pakistan including the whole world has intensified, due to which there is a severe heat wave on the one hand and severe monsoon on the other hand. Rains are being recorded.
Sardar Sarfaraz says, “Due to these meteorological phenomena, heavy rains have been happening in Pakistan and especially in southern Sindh for the past few years. Previously, these climatic phenomena used to occur after two to five years, but now they are happening sooner. There is a possibility of heavy rains in Pakistan during monsoon coming under their influence.
